States in the South and the West, where the bulk of the expected new enrollees live, have argued they will carry a disproportionate burden compared with other states, but the Kaiser study shows costs to be minimal when accounting for the increased federal funding they stand to receive, according to the report.
The federal government already provides states with matching dollars, as much as 75 percent of cost in some poorer states, and under the healthcare reform law, that amount will be 100 percent for all new enrollees through 2016, according to the report. By 2020, the rate will step down to 90 percent.
Kaiser predicted the federal share of the total expansion to be between 92 and 95 percent from 2014-2019, with federal spending increasing by 22 percent. The study also showed that despite huge jumps in enrollment, state costs would be minimal. Texas, for example, is expected to see a 45 percent increase in enrollment, but the study predicted only a 3 percent increase in state spending on Medicaid. Virginia, similarly, will see a 42 percent enrollment increase at a 2 percent increase in cost, according to the report.
Although the small increases in costs look favorable, some critics note that many states are struggling to fund programs as is, so even a small 3 percent increase will be difficult fund without monies available.
Read the Washington Post’s report on expanded Medicaid coverage.
