The U.S. is projected to have only 88% of the orthopedic surgeons it needs by 2038, as an aging population drives up demand and the workforce shrinks.
Here are nine numbers that outline the shortage:
- 12%: The projected orthopedic surgeon shortage in 2038, according to the Health Resources and Services Administration.
- 14,100: The estimated number of employed orthopedic surgeons in 2025, down from 16,260 in 2021, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- 2% and 13%: Orthopedic surgeon supply is projected to fall 2% by 2036 while demand rises up to 13%, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.
- 52%: Projected orthopedic workforce adequacy in nonmetro areas by 2036, compared with 95% in metro areas, according to the same study.
- 61.2 million: The number of Americans 65 and older in 2024, up 13% since 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- 1997: The last year the number of Medicare-funded residency slots changed, according to an American College of Surgeons study.
- 141,160: The projected shortage of full-time equivalent physicians across all specialties in 2038, according to HRSA data.
- 4,437: The number of active orthopedic surgery residents in the 2024-25 academic year. Every orthopedic residency position was filled in the 2025 match cycle.
- 9: The number of states Becker’s identified with fewer than three orthopedic surgeons per 100,000 residents, led by Idaho (1.55), Illinois (1.91) and Georgia (1.92).
At the Becker’s 32nd Annual Meeting: The Business and Operations of ASCs, taking place October 29-31 in Chicago, ASC leaders, surgeons and healthcare executives will explore strategies to drive growth, enhance operational performance, navigate reimbursement challenges and prepare for the future of ambulatory surgery. Apply for complimentary registration now.
