Orthopedic surgery is projected to have a 12% shortage by 2038, according to a report from the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.
The report used simulation model assesses the adequacy of the nation’s projected workforce supply from 2023 through 2038 across 35 physician specialties, including orthopedics.
By 2038, orthopedics is projected to be at an 88% adequacy rate, or a 12% shortage.
The projections are already reflected in data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing a decline in the number of orthopedic surgeons (except pediatrics) since 2021.
“The projected shortage in the number of practicing orthopedic surgeons is alarming,” Frank Aluisio, MD, said. “In a time where the population of those over 60 is expanding rapidly and demand for orthopedic services is concomitantly growing rapidly, we cannot afford to have such a decline in the number of surgeons available to provide these services. This will cause undue stress on the existing providers and most likely increase burnout rates, leading to earlier retirements and even further decreases in our workforce.”
An overall physician shortage is projected to be 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038. Five specialties — neurology, neonatology, endocrinology, critical care and pulmonology medicine, and emergency medicine — are expected to see physician surpluses.
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