The number of total joint replacements is expected to jump between 2030 and 2060, according to a new report from the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.
During the society's annual meeting, researchers presented a study examining projected increases in total joint replacements. In 2014, according to the National Inpatient Sample, there were 370,770 total hip replacements and 680,150 total knee replacements.
Researchers performed a linear regression model to predict the volume of primary and revision total knee replacements in the future and considered census projections to predict U.S. procedure volume. "We were particularly interested in the predictions for TJRs as the projected volume of procedures by 2030 and 2060 were very high," said Matthew Sloan, MD, an orthopedic resident at the Philadelphia-based University of Pennsylvania and lead study authors. "We went into our study thinking that the previously anticipated exponential growth among these procedures was not consistent with current trends, and it might be an overestimate."
The researchers found:
1. Primary total hip replacements are projected to grow 171 percent and primary total knee replacements are expected to grow 189 percent by 2030.
2. Revision total hip replacements are expected to jump 142 percent and revision total knee replacements will likely jump around 190 percent by 2030.
3. There are expected to be 1.23 million total hip replacements in 2060, a 330 percent increase over today, and 2.6 million total knee replacements, a 382 percent increase over today.
4. Revision total hip replacements are expected to jump 219 percent and revision total knee replacements are expected to grow 400 percent by 2060.
5. The average age for primary total hip replacements dropped from 66.3 years old in 2000 to 64.9 years old in 2014.
6. The average age for primary total knee replacement dropped from 68 years old to 65.9 years old over the same time period.