US physician shortage may hit 100k+ by 2030 — 5 key points

Megan Wood -  

The Association of American Medical Colleges reported an estimated national shortage of between 40,800 and 104,900 physicians by 2030.

IHS Markit's life science decision conducted a physician supply and demand study for the AAMC.


Here are five key points:


1. The report projects a shortage of between 7,300 and 43,100 primary care physicians by 2030.


2. By 2030, the nation will likely lack between 33,500 and 61,800 specialists.


3. The numbers of new primary care physicians and medical specialists entering the field are not keeping up with demand.


4. The supply of surgical specialists is anticipated to maintain its level, while demand increases.


5. If all Americans accessed healthcare with no utilization obstacles, as the insured non-Hispanic white population does, America would have required up to 96,800 physicians in 2015.


The AAMC promotes various tactics to fend off the shortage:


• Boosting medical school class size
• Innovating care delivery and team-based care
• Leveraging technology
• Increasing federal support for an extra 3,000 new residency positions annually for five years


"Not only do these utilization equity data highlight the need for the nation to train more doctors, they also demonstrate the importance of a diverse health care workforce. Many of those who underutilize health care — despite their need — are from racial and ethnic minority backgrounds," said AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, MD. "A diverse and culturally competent workforce will enable us to provide the care all Americans need and deserve."


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