A $4B discrepancy: Analysts disagree about how Pfizer's biosimilar launch will impact Johnson & Johnson's bottom line

Spinal Tech

Earlier this week, Pfizer said it will sell a biosimilar version of Johnson & Johnson's Remicade, a rheumatoid arthritis treatment, causing investors to worry about the competition's impact on Johnson & Johnson's sales, according to STAT.

Here are seven insights:

 

1. During this year's first quarter, Remicade brought in nearly $1.2 billion for Johnson & Johnson.

 

2. Pfizer has plans to sell its biosimilar, Inflectra, at a 15 percent discount to Remicade.

 

3. Initially, Wall Street analysts estimated Johnson & Johnson could expect a $1 billion loss in revenue in 2017 due to Inflectra's market launch.

 

4. However, other analysts are contesting this figure, with Wells Fargo analyst Lawrence Biegelsen, projecting Johnson & Johnson can expect sales to plummet by $600 million next year.

 

5. Johnson & Johnson currently sells Remicade at a 30 percent discount off the $1,113.26 list price per 100mg vial. Mr. Biegelsen says Pfizer's discount will likely be "modest."

 

6. Johnson & Johnson also affirms the two drugs are not interchangeable, which may pose a challenge for Pfizer to compete on prices. In an investor note, a Barclays' analyst weighed in, saying, "From a biosimilar implementation perspective, we believe that a lack of formal guidelines on interchangeability and multiple switch studies [which would be used to convince doctors to switch between drugs] could initially limit Inflectra uptake."

 

7. Joaquin Duato, leader of Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceuticals unit, told The Wallstreet Journal, the company is in the process of creating 10 line extensions on existing products. The company expects the extensions to generate more than $500 million in sales to each of the products and 10 new drugs could have sales surpassing $1 billion.

 

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