CBO Predits National Healthcare Spending Will Increase to 22% of GDP by 2038

National healthcare spending will increase to approximately 22 percent of the gross domestic product by 2038 under current law, driven by various factors such as an aging population, new medical technologies and expanding health insurance coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office's 2013 long-term budget outlook report. The CBO projects spending on federal healthcare programs including Medicare, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program will grow much faster than the economy, increasing from their current level of 5 percent of GDP to 8 percent by 2038.

In 2011, total spending for healthcare in the United States was approximately $2.5 trillion — 16.4 percent of the GDP, according to the CBO. Private financing accounted for 53 percent of that spending, and public sources made up the remaining 47 percent.

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